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Web Site Grounds: My Succeed Forecasting Kind (Segment 2)
Due to your volume of inquiries after my first posting "Website estimation: is there..." I've decided to share my forecasting excel model.
To download: http://www.scribd.com/doc/7668443/Traffic-Estimation-Model-1
IMPORTANT
1) Linear Function: y = 8E 09x 49771
2) 2nd degree polinomic function: y = -1E 13x2 1E 10x - 3272,2
3) For the part of the curve that corresponds to websites who has an Alexa traffic rank below 100.000, the function used is an average of those polinomic and linear functions
Two functions are being used to calculate traffic. This is upgraded, corrected and improved with more data points or sources of datapoints.
Please should you know any public method to obtain reliable data of historic data on traffic, or have any comments email me at pedroneiraf@gmail.com
4) Cells with yellow background Will not be Alexa's 3 month average reach. This input was distorted, so before inputing your data directly from Alexa, it has for being corrected
5) The manner in which during which this data is "corrected" is by way of simple cross-multiplication aproximation to your nearest upper value in their email list (the closest upper white cell).
6) This function will not work well for recently created websites.
7) This material may be for non-commercial use only. Any usage of these functions or point about this excel sheet should quote the origin.
The results I actually have to date using this function result in average error of 7%, while it should be said that in some cases, the error could possibly be approximately 40%. It possesses worked good for me thus far 80% of the time who has an error of under 15%, which happens to be in excess of acceptable considdering the errors wound in other tools like the web traffic Estimate. If you have a website and know your numbers, just compare and see the excellence.
Please, this model is just a start line, that should be upgraded, corrected and improved with all your comments.... Any suggestions ???
Crocs Set to Hit Billion in 2011 - Analyst Blog (Zacks)
Crocs recently announced that it expects to achieve the higher end of its
revenue guidance of $200 million to $205 million for the fourth quarter of
2011 and anticipates to post revenues of more than $1 billion for fiscal 2011.
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